Polar Politics: A Race for the Arctic

By Lia Goldman

The opinions expressed in this article reflect the opinions of its author(s). They do not represent the views of the UCL International Relations Society, Circum Mundum, or its Editorial Team.

The Arctic is a complex space both on the surface- in the sea - and in the sky. The polar powers (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Russia, Sweden and the United States) fondly hold on to their territories in the region. There are also several contested territories in the Arctic Ocean. Disputes over ownership are only likely to intensify in the coming years as the Arctic generates growing interest from Russia, the United States and China among others.

But why is the Arctic becoming such a coveted region?

The region holds an abundance of valuable resources - metals like iron ore, copper, nickel, zinc and rare earth elements and large oil and gas reserves. Melting ice caps facilitate the extraction of the Arctic’s precious oil, gas and minerals. These metals and minerals are in high demand; the renewable energy industry and tech sector rely on them.

Climate change is also creating new maritime shipping routes. As of now, the High North remains difficult to navigate but since the Arctic ice is melting at an accelerated rate, the Transpolar Sea Route (mainly international waters) and Northern Sea Route (mostly along the Russian coastline) might soon be ice-free in the summer months. China in particular is hoping to more frequently use this Polar Silk Road, a convenient shortcut for shipping between Asia and Europe (it is twice as fast as the usual shipping route). Last spring, the Chinese and Russian coastguards signed a cooperation agreement to conduct joint exercises to police Russia's coastline in the Arctic. This brings China closer to gaining greater access to the region (its commerce and mineral resources) and it benefits Russia’s efforts to open the Arctic to trade, as it is alienated from the Western economy.

How has the war in Ukraine affected the region?

Traditionally, the countries that hold territories in the Arctic cooperate through the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum where issues like search and rescue operations, fisheries management, and environmental protection are discussed. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the other polar powers suspended its activity and joined sanctions against Russia.

Regional cooperation gave way to defense buildups and military drills. Russia, notably, has conducted large-scale military exercises in the Arctic. Existing military bases are reinvigorated and equipped with larger runaways, over-the-horizon radar systems and S-300 and 400 anti-aircraft missiles.

The United States also maintains military bases in the Arctic - six to be precise - and conducts military exercises to ensure the territorial defense of its 34,000 miles of coastline along the Alaskan coastline. Ready to respond to security threats

All polar countries conduct intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) efforts to monitor the military activities of other countries. In fact, the space above the Arctic is full of satellites, including Chinese satellites.

In the future, the High North will also see a greater NATO presence. With Finland and Sweden scheduled to join NATO, Russia will be the only member of the Arctic Council who is not part of the club. What is more, NATO’s updated security plans include more exercises and monitoring because the region is critical for the security of its member states. Its members will also increase cooperation in terms of intelligence sharing.

In the meantime, the Arctic Council, or rather the A7, have recently taken up activity again under the Norwegian Chairmanship. While ministerial councils will continue without the eight members (Russia), cooperation might take up within individual working groups. Research groups in areas like maritime safety and climate change and a basic level of diplomatic efforts are important for responsible resource exploration in the region.

The Arctic Council is also essential for other reasons: it is one of the main fora in which Indigenous peoples’ representatives can voice their concerns and influence policy recommendations. Indigenous and local communities tend to be the first to be impacted by mounting insecurity in the region and they have a unique understanding of local security concerns. Their skills in cold-weather survival, and search and rescue operations are unparalleled. As such, they are frequently the first responders in such operations and climate disasters. It is important that Indigenous rights-holders and local communities have a place in military and trade discussions; not only to guarantee their rights and interests but because Arctic nations can learn from their expertise to better protect the environment.

Environmental protection should come above economic and military interests. Arctic ecosystems are some of the richest ecosystems in the world. In winter, there are Arctic algae with photosynthetic potential and water with nutrient-heavy water, and the bloom of phytoplankton nourishes creatures from minuscule crustaceans to giant crabs, and fish like salmon, sole, and herring. In summer, millions of birds feed where whales dive, and over 100, 000 of Pacific walruses seek refuge amidst the Arctic’s estival ice.

The developments in the Arctic since Russia's invasion of Ukraine are concerning; now that trade and investment in Russia is now coming primarily from China, India and the Gulf states, “environmental protection … is not a priority”. Russia's new commercial activities produce significant amounts of waste, and its military sites destroy territory that is protected and that belongs to the Indigenous Sami people.

It's crucial to strike a balance between defense interests, and developing extractive industries for the economic growth of the polar powers while prioritizing the environmental and indigenous rights concerns in the fragile Arctic ecosystem.

The future on the shores of the Arctic Sea and its economic and security dynamics is complex and uncertain. The task of Arctic countries and parties looking to get involved is to overcome geopolitical tensions and consolidate their economic ambitions to create a space that is sustainably secure, prosperous and just.