Potential Peacemaker? Trump's Interference in the Russia-Ukraine War

By Clara Cohn

Editor: Ozain Ali

The opinions expressed in this article reflect the opinions of its author(s). They do not represent the views of the UCL International Relations Society, Circum Mundum, or its Editorial Team.

The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for years, originating in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and escalating significantly in 2022 with Russia's full-scale invasion of Kyiv. Former President Donald Trump pledged during his 2024 campaign that, if re-elected, he would end the conflict due to his relationship with both country's leaders. Now back in office following the November 2024 election, Trump has engaged with both Russian and Ukrainian leaders, with speculation that this will lead to a ceasefire. Therefore, it is crucial to assess Trump's self-proclaimed role as a peacemaker and reflect on his efforts so far. 

US and Russia Relations

The United States and Russia have long maintained a complex relationship, marked by periods of cooperation and hostility. As two of the world's largest economic and military superpowers, their interaction shapes global politics. After the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, their relationship had initial improvement. However, tensions arose in 1997 when NATO expanded to include Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, as Russia viewed this as a direct threat to their interests. 

Further tension emerged in 2001 when Washington announced its withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, an important diplomatic tool for nuclear arms. By 2007, the US decision to build missile defence systems in Poland exacerbated their divide. The relationship remained volatile, with disagreements and conflicts pulling the countries apart. 

However, Trump recently held a 90-minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which he described as “very good and productive”. The conversation demonstrated willingness from both sides to initiate negotiations for a ceasefire, yet, complications emerged as Russia demanded the US to halt arms shipments to Ukraine. They also announced a potential meeting in 2025 in Saudi Arabia, representing an even greater step in mediation efforts.

US and Ukraine Relations

Last week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US officials met at the Oval Office, expecting to sign a deal granting the US access to Ukraine's rare earth materials, while also addressing the conflict. During their dialogue, Trump consistently framed himself as a mediator, emphasising his commitment to peace. 

Yet, the meeting ended abruptly after heated exchanges between the two leaders, with both Trump and JD Vance accusing Zelenskyy of insufficient gratitude for US military and political support. They claimed the Ukrainian president was “gambling with World War III” and that the US “holds the cards” [in the game]. It ended with the President of the US ordering Zelenskyy to “come back when [he's] ready for peace”, emphasising his belief that Ukraine must prioritise negotiations. Both countries did not sign the expected deal of rare earth minerals as Zelenskyy departed.

Following the meeting, Zelenskyy sent a letter to the US administration, reaffirming Ukraine's readiness to negotiate. The letter read “Nobody wants peace more than the Ukranians”, which Trump agreed with in other statements. 

Will Trump be the so-called peacemaker?

Trump's claim to promote peace has been a piece of hope on his return to office, and his direct engagement with both Putin and Zelenskyy reflects his efforts to fulfil that promise. His position as mediator and pledging to end the war quickly garnered significant Republican support. However, his approach faced criticism from Democrats, who accused him of prioritising alliance and economic interest over Ukraine's control. 

Trump's influence over weapon shipments to Ukraine and his ability to facilitate the country’s entry into NATO gives him significant leverage in the conflict. While his efforts have created hope for a ceasefire, the success of this peacemaking will depend on Trump's ability to balance interests and promote long-term, sustainable peace.

Trump did claim that the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end with full restoration of the country's 2014 borders, hinting that territorial conquests to Russia are likely to be part of a final peace deal. Whether he will be the reason for peace or a reason for further division remains to be seen, therefore, observing the actions and interactions in the following months is crucial to determine the progress of international stability.