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Since its announcement last September, the security alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (Aukus), which resulted in the cancellation of a $90bn nuclear submarine deal between Australia and France, has caused a significant backlash and what some have called a diplomatic crisis. Many in the Australian media have interpreted France’s reaction simply as an attempt by Emmanuel Macron to win voters at home before next April’s presidential election. Surely, Macron sees the opportunity to use this affair to his benefit; but to dismiss this as mere electioneering would be to ignore his vision of France’s role in the world stage. The response to Aukus might have domestic purposes, but it also serves France’s international ambitions.
France’s reaction to Aukus was less about money than about the way in which this deal was devised behind its back. Not to mention, that it was only informed about the agreement several hours before it was revealed to the press. For France, the only EU country with a seat in the UN’s Security Council, being treated as a minor power by close allies was both a humiliation and a betrayal. Macron’s decision to call back ambassadors for consultations and strongly criticize the countries involved in the deal, was seen by some as an overreaction but it seems to be paying off. The persistent and very public display of French anger has meant that even months after the scandal, the story continues to make the headlines and dominate the discussions in both the G20 in Rome and the COP26 in Glasgow, prompting France to portray itself as a major international player.
More importantly, France’s strategic reaction to Aukus has given it the upper hand in Franco-American relations. Joe Biden insists that he was under the impression Australia had informed France of the cancellation of the submarine deal long before Aukus’ announcement. Yet, several sources claim that he was well aware of the situation and had wrongly assumed French anger over the matter would rapidly go away. France’s open condemnation of American behaviour in the affair has been a source of embarrassment for the Biden administration, whose foreign policy approach is heavily criticized both at home and abroad, and has forced it to try to make amends. Since then, the US has been continuously taking actions to ingratiate itself with France in an attempt to gain back its trust, and this puts the French in a position of power. For Macron, getting the American president to publicly acknowledge the situation was mismanaged and refer to the handling of the affair as “clumsy” in front of the international press in the middle of the G20 summit is no minor achievement.
France has also used the Aukus affair to its advantage in its relationship with the UK. The French government dismissed Britain as only an opportunistic accomplice in the matter and by not even bothering to recall its ambassador in the UK it aimed to show the irrelevance of Boris Johnson’s ‘Global Britain’. The Aukus affair gave France an opportunity to humiliate the UK by showing the limited scope of its influence post-Brexit and portraying it as America’s subordinate. Moreover, it helped strengthen its strategy of pointing to Britain as the unfortunate example of an EU leaver.
As for Australia, the french refusal to let go of the affair has made it look like an unreliable partner. Furthermore, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s decision to leak a private text message from Macron to the press, after he told journalists he knew Morrison had lied to him over the submarine deal, was seen as a breach of confidence and an unscrupulous tactic. This gave the Australian opposition the chance to harshly criticize Morrison, damaging his reputation at home.
In addition, France’s reaction highlighted the fact that this was not only a French issue but one that concerned the whole of the European Union. By convincing the European Commission to condemn the Aukus partners’ treatment of France and demand an apology from Australia, Macron presented Europe as a united block with a common stance on foreign policy and with France as one of its leaders. Not to mention, this affair benefits France by allowing it to emphasise the need for closer European cooperation on security, an issue made evident by America’s unilateral actions in the chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan. This is an issue France has been pushing for since Macron came to power – hence, it will likely be at the top of its agenda during the duration of its presidency of the European Council starting next January.
France might have lost $90bn and, in the words of the Minister of the Exterior Jean Yves Le Drian, been “stabbed in the back” by the US, the UK and Australia, but it has cleverly used this betrayal to its advantage.
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