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This is an opinion piece written by Callie Yoo. Design by Rosie Phillips.
A few days ago, North Korea claimed that the series of missile launches over the past few weeks was a ‘simulation’ of a nuclear attack on South Korea. Given the desensitisation of the global community after exposure to periodic North Korean aggression, the news did not startle as much as it would have a decade ago. Upon hearing about North Korea’s successful nuclear test, it can be difficult to comprehend what it means and the threat it poses to the rest of the world. Yet, the overall atmosphere and media quacking sufficiently signify that something is wrong. Even years later, the media continues to emphasize the threat of nuclear simulation and the ‘great danger’ of the upcoming seventh [BA1] nuclear test of North Korea. However, the South Korean population, or the media or even the government cannot provide a satisfactory answer on how to respond to the North’s constant aggression.
According to Gallup.or.kr, 24% of South Koreans over 18 years responded numbly to this imminent threat, while 71% responded that they worry about the aggression. A fallacy of this survey is that with a mere 1002 participants it is not representative of a South Korean populace that encompasses millions. Yet this is the most recent survey that provides South Korean perspectives on the issue and will be referred to several times throughout the article. This article focuses not on the political motives behind this continuous and deliberate provocation. It does not discuss Kim Jong-Un’s vision for his ambitious nuclear testing. Instead, this article brings to limelight what these actions mean to South Korea, and specifically how the author, as a South Korean, views this issue.
Experts agree that North Korean hostility intensified after newly elected South Korean President Yun Seok-Yeol strengthened his alliance with the US. Additionally, attempts at peace negotiations during President Trump’s era and efforts to declare an end to the Korean War became a discussion of the past. The war in Ukraine also provided a distraction for Kim Jong-un to pursue aggressive action, as the international community's focus shifted to Europe. As tensions in East Asia heighten, even Japan is altering [BA2] its security strategy due to “the north’s belligerence and capabilities”, according to guardians.com. North Korea has succeeded in launching eight missile attacks in 10 days. What does this mean for South Koreans? Should they not fear the immediate threat of rising tensions in the region?
Many Koreans with vivid memories of the Korean War tend to react anxiously to Kim’s missile simulations. They remember the war in great detail; the pain, suffering, and horror and many fear that these missile tests could lead to another conflict. Among a large proportion of the older demographic there is disdain for the Communist Party. Their fear of the party leads them to believe that maintaining an alliance with the United States will strengthen South Korea, which, to some extent, has been true[BA3] . Although South Korea has been developing their own weapons, majority of their armament is purchased from the United States, proven by America’s $258 million arms sale to Korea in August 2021. However, the younger generations believe otherwise. While they are startled by North Korea’s violent acts, it does not significantly impact their daily lives. The aforementioned survey shows that 59% of people in their 40s consider North Korea as a threat, which is lower than the percentage in other age groups. Meanwhile, 54% of the participants in their 60s view North Korea as ‘very threatening’, proving that the older generation is generally impacted by the North’s aggressions.
The disparity between age groups is noticeable. This can be attributed to generational differences as people in their 40s and 50s were born when Korea was industrializing at a remarkable speed. The previous generation that experienced the war focused on living better than before. Parents focused on educating their children to ensure that they would be spared from the struggles they underwent during the 1950s and 1960s. These historical characteristics encourage this generation to focus more on themselves and prosper in life. Additionally, people in their 40s lack lived memories of the war. They were absent from the most tragic event in Korean history and the division among the people. While they have experienced North Korean aggression through missile testing and spy activities, they have never lived during active conflict and direct attacks on South Korea. It can be argued that Kim Jong-Un embodies the spirit of the "boy who cried wolf," which diminishes the sense of threat among South Koreans. These are two possible reasons why the younger generation is relatively ignorant of the aggression from the North.
The article which presents the survey also mentions that 70% of all the other age groups perceive North Korea as a threat. How can younger generations, including people in their 20s and 30s, feel threatened when they are even farther away from the timeline of the Korean War? It is shocking to discover that the youngest adult generation feels insecure about the North. There could be two possible reasons behind the survey result. Firstly, the data fails to represent the accurate poll. There could have been fewer participants in their 20s and 30s and those in their 40s and older. Further, the option of only two possible answers could limit the accuracy of responses among younger participants.
As a South Korean, I do not feel unsafe about what the North is doing to South Korea, Japan, or the US. Kim Jong-Un’s claims about invading my home country sound like empty threats. North Korean leadership have been declaring this for ages, but they have yet to take any serious measures.
Politically, North Korea cannot dare to invade the South, nor do they have the ability to attack. China cannot support North Korea unconditionally, and as a country it does not have the ability to invade South Korea on its own. The South Korean military is much stronger than when the Korean war happened and ranks sixth in the world in the Global Firepower Index, 2022. South Korea in 1950 is quite different from South Korea today.
However, it is foolish to entirely dismiss North Korean aggression. Their actions raise tensions in the region and hinder stability. Failure of diplomatic interventions is making it difficult for the two countries to coexist within the peninsula. Kim's actions are also exacerbating conflicts [BA4] between countries in East Asia and even the Pacific world. His actions urge South Korea and Japan to take more defensive or even offensive stance against North Korean aggression. For example, South Korea decided to deploy America’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) to protect themselves from the North in 2016. China retaliated South Korea economically shortly after, pressuring them to cease the installment of THAAD. Although they have come in terms multiple times regarding the issue, the conflict regarding THAAD is still ongoing. As such, North Korea’s reckless actions worsen the conflicts and increase the tension in the region.
South Korea’s response to this constant nuclear threat depends on the generation. While a part of the population does not believe in potential escalation of conflict beyond empty threats and fear mongering, others often advise loved ones to stay out of the country during nuclear missile tests. However, there is need for accurate surveys and more data to propose better, pragmatic conclusions on this topic. This analysis is drawn based on the author’s personal experience as a South Korean, and the survey of Gallup.co.kr. Although North Korea may not threaten the security of South Korea currently, it does not mean that peace is guaranteed. Rising tensions in East Asia requires that leaders of different states must engage in open dialogue. A diplomatic solution is critical to maintaining peace within the region.
Sources:
Cha, V., Kim, E. and Lim, A. (2022). North Korea Tests Missile over Japan. [online] www.csis.org. Available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/north-korea-tests-missile-over-japan-0.
Global Fire Power (2022). 2022 Military Strength Ranking. [online] www.globalfirepower.com. Available at: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php.
Jo, S. (2022). Naver. [online] link.naver.com. Available at: https://naver.me/5mgFo9rz [Accessed 30 Oct. 2022].
Kim, T.-H. (2022). China, South Korea clash over THAAD anti-missile system. [online] Defense News. Available at: https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/08/10/china-south-korea-clash-over-thaad-anti-missile-system/ [Accessed 30 Oct. 2022].
Martin, C. (2021). US approves $258 million arms sale to South Korea. [online] Defense News. Available at: https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/08/25/us-approves-258-million-arms-sale-to-south-korea/ [Accessed 30 Oct. 2022].
Mao, F. (2022). North Korea says missile launches were nuclear attack simulation on South. BBC News. [online] 10 Oct. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-63196618 [Accessed 30 Oct. 2022].
McCurry, J. (2022). What’s behind the sudden increase in missile tests from North Korea? [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/06/whats-behind-the-sudden-increase-in-missile-tests-from-north-korea.
theguardian.com (2022). The Guardian view on North Korea’s missile tests: growing risks, reduced response | Editorial. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/12/the-guardian-view-on-north-koreas-missile-tests-growing-risks-reduced-response [Accessed 30 Oct. 2022].
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