Deterrence or Diplomacy - Answering the world’s security concerns

This is an opinion piece written by Jasrene Hor.

The rising threat of regional and international disputes abounding the globe along with the realpolitik nature of geopolitics in today’s volatile world has made it pertinent for countries to safeguard their sovereignty and way of life. Superpowers are flagrantly deviating from global norms and challenging the rule-based order. China’s rapid militarisation of the South China Sea, ignoring the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (Kwon, 2019); coupled with the gradual withdrawal of the United States from the world order (Regilme, 2019), has only increased global uncertainty. This has been aggravated by the changing security landscape amidst an increasingly integrated world. As a result, countries often have to tackle transnational security threats such as terrorism, cyber-attacks and the control of nuclear weapons by rogue nations. The role of deterrence and diplomacy has as such increased in importance.

Deterrence

Deterrence via the maintenance of a well-trained and equipped military is vital to ensure a country’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and political leverage. This is especially so for small nations, with their lack of territorial strategic depth and limited Armed Forces (Tan, 2013). Due to the highly concentrated nature of civilian and military infrastructure, they are especially vulnerable to physical attacks and cannot yield territory to an aggressor with the expectations of regaining it later. To deal with this issue, Singapore has long adopted a 'poison shrimp' defence strategy by maintaining a formidable and combat-ready defence force (Tan, 2011). This force was tested on Singapore’s National Day in 1991 when Malaysia and Indonesia conducted a massive tri-service exercise code named Exercise Malindo Darsasa in southern Johor, a mere 18 kilometres from Singapore (Chong and Chan, 2016). The rapidness with which Singapore was able to mobilise her National Servicemen is a clear indication of the resolve and strength of the Armed Forces and a strong deterrence to external threats.

However, military deterrence while necessary, is no longer sufficient. In today’s rapidly evolving threat landscape and the advent of cyberspace, foreign state actors are increasingly able to attack a society from within. Traditional means of deterrence via laws and security agencies have rendered to be ineffective and insufficient. Cyberspace has been utilised in two key methods - first via the use of malware to cripple national infrastructure; and second via the use of propaganda to influence the populace (Li and Liu, 2021).

With respect to the former, Singapore formed the Cyber Security Agency in 2015 and the Defence Cyber Organisation in 2017 to consolidate cyber-security capabilities with a view to detect and deter future attacks (Ter, 2018). These nonetheless failed to deter the SingHealth cyber-attack in 2018. Regarding the latter, existing legislations have proven to be inadequate. Fake news was recently identified to be a threat to National Security, illustrated by the Russian campaign to divide American society during the 2016 Presidential elections (Bail et al., 2019). Closer to home, terrorist organisations such as ISIS have utilised social media to radicalise Muslims to the cause with some success (Asongu, Orim and Nting, 2019).

Underlying these new emerging threats is the desire to shatter public confidence in national institutions or divide society. This shows that our concept of deterrence must be expanded to include efforts in bolstering society’s psychological and social defence. In this light, Singapore’s Total Defence is the appropriate framework to cope with the ever-changing landscape of global threats. Grassroots Organisations such as the People’s Association plays a critical role in today’s divisive age, as it strives to keep Singapore’s social fabric strong and united (Matthews and Yan, 2007). A resilient and cohesive society is the best deterrence against external forces seeking to divide it.

Diplomacy

Deterrence, while essential, must be complemented with diplomacy. There are 3 ways in which diplomacy can help to preserve the security and sovereignty of nations. Firstly, diplomacy can foster mutual trust and goodwill, thus reducing the potential for conflict. For example, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was set up amidst a backdrop of conflicts as a mechanism to foster mutual trust among member states (Han, 2020). This resulted in its centrality and consensus-building approach, which has enhanced unity and strengthened regional cooperation despite the significant diversity among its members. The ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community aims to facilitate socio-cultural exchanges, strengthening mutual ties based on shared principles and objectives (Quayle, 2017). Leveraging on this, ASEAN had since embarked on intensive dialogues to reach a common platform on pressing global issues. This allows it to ‘punch above its weight’ and enhance its relevance in preventive diplomacy while ensuring that the national interests and sovereignty of each nation is not infringed upon. In addition, the willingness of nations to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to other countries in times of need is paramount in creating mutual goodwill, indirectly boosting regional stability.

Secondly, diplomacy provides the means for countries to deal with transnational security threats through international organisations and collaborations. The Proliferation Security Initiative highlights how the international community can collaborate to curb the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction through a coordinated approach, by facilitating information sharing and hosting joint exercises. Within ASEAN, the ADMM-Plus was established to provide essential platforms for member states to coordinate their counter-terrorism efforts, thus ensuring a safer ASEAN region for all (Rymarenko, 2021). These instances have highlighted the increased importance of global cooperation and information sharing to deal with security threats.

Thirdly, the ability to engage nations through international trade and mutual economic growth is equally vital. It increases the interdependence between nations and reduces the impetus for conflict as political leaders will be averse to conflict with their trade partners. Indeed, economic partnerships such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have been successful in fostering closer relations between partner states (Ishikawa, 2021). It is thus suggested that closer economic integration between states would be beneficial to reducing inter-state conflicts.

Best of Both Worlds

Deterrence through total defence and diplomacy as a tool for engagement have played a prominent role in ameliorating the efforts of modern security challenges. The unity and cooperation of nations across the globe serves as a force multiplier to tackle transnational and complex security threats. This is especially critical for small nations like Singapore given its limited resources and location in a geopolitically complex region.

Reference list

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